Part A · Read — Chapter 2

Timeframes: 200s cloud, snowball → snowman, scaling

After this: pick the 200s timeframe a chart respects, and know which bigger trend it stands in for.

The 200s cloud

His whole trend tool is the 200 MA plus the 200 EMA on one timeframe, his "blue and green lines" ("the 200s"). When he asked other traders whether to use the MA or the EMA, the answer split 50/50, so he uses both. Two lines make a general region rather than a single line, and that stops your brain from hunting for a pico top or bottom.

The cloud is a zone, not a line. HLs form on it.

▶ BEST Strategy 5:57 ▶ BEST Strategy 6:51 ▶ BEST Strategy 8:13 ▶ BEST Strategy 9:40 ▶ Fear of Feb 0:46 both

Snowflake → snowball → snowman

"Every snowman starts as a big snowball… every tiny snowball starts as a snowflake." A trend starts on the LTF and builds up. A 1–15m move is a snowflake, "just noise". 30m–2H is a snowball, 4H–12H a bigger snowball, and the snowman is every timeframe up to the daily/weekly saying the same thing. Don't call tops or bottoms before a real snowball has formed.

Each tier has to form before the next one can.

▶ Snowball 0:36 ▶ Snowball 1:21 ▶ Snowball 1:44 ▶ Snowball 2:04 ▶ Level to Watch 9:01 both

Weakness builds the same way

A breakdown mirrors a breakout. It starts as a snowflake, then comes a daily LH, then a daily LL, and that's a full bearish snowman. Only when strength is lost on every timeframe can you say "in hindsight… probably the macro top". A big bearish LTF snowball doesn't melt the HTF bullish snowman: it's possible to be "HTF bullish, LTF bearish" at the same time.

The top is only a top in hindsight.

▶ Snowball 2:37 ▶ Snowball 10:56 ▶ Level to Watch 19:38 both

Each 200s stands in for the next timeframe up

An LTF 200s portrays the HTF trend, so you don't have to wait for the HTF structure to break.

Use these 200s…to read this trend
1H 200s4H structure
2H 200sintraday / 4H
4H 200sdaily structure
200 daily (200D)weekly structure

▶ Scaling 5:11 ▶ Scaling 8:13 ▶ Bear Market? 5:08 ▶ Spec vs Interp 11:08 both

Ask the chart what it respects

"Not gonna force my system down Bitcoin's throat." Use the 200s timeframe that the asset has historically and recently respected, i.e. its "line of best fit". If price crosses back and forth through it, there's no edge on that timeframe, so swap to a more local tier. Each asset has a local, an HTF and a very-HTF tier.

HLs hold on the cloud: use it.
Whipsawed: drop it and go local.

▶ Snowball 6:32 ▶ Explaining 4:25 ▶ BEST Strategy 11:07 ▶ Watchlist W14 18:54 ▶ Fear of Feb 9:11 both

Scaling assumptions

"Weekly still uptrending" can mean price drops −33% and you're still "bullish". He calls that "shitty analysis". If every LTF trend is bearish, he doesn't care about the very-HTF trend. Scale down to the nearest trend that is actually close to price.

A thesis that needs a −30% move to be proven wrong can't be acted on.

▶ Scaling 2:49 ▶ Scaling 3:25 ▶ Scaling 3:40 ▶ BEST Strategy 22:11 both

The white-space ladder

Reclaim the intraday trend and you can assume a test of the daily trend. The gap in between (~11–12% in his example) is white space. A reclaim of the 2H 200s is the snowball, the 4H 200s is the body of the snowman, and then comes the 200D. Take it level to level. To get back down to the 4H 200s, price first has to lose the 1H, and before that the 15m.

Each reclaim opens a "gate" to the next band.

▶ Scaling 10:44 ▶ Scaling 11:20 ▶ Scaling 12:28 ▶ Spec vs Interp 14:43 ▶ Watchlist W13 20:35 swing

Bounces aren't strength. Wicks aren't strength.

"You do not get a cookie" for a +7% bounce under the trend. "You're making cash, I'm printing wealth." What counts is an HH on a meaningful timeframe, like the "first higher high on the 4H since March 27th". Candlestick patterns only reinforce an idea, and every textbook candle has 4–5 counterexamples.

Still under the trend, so the read is still down.

▶ Scaling 12:54 ▶ Scaling 13:26 ▶ Scaling 13:36 ▶ Snowball 6:02 both

If → then