Reading the cycle

One ladder of trends

Each set of 200s portrays the next timeframe's structure: 1H 200s ≈ 4H structure, 4H 200s ≈ daily, 200D ≈ weekly. MAs lag. Waiting for the 200D alone is "having fun doing nothing and missing out on the rally". When every rung is up, context is easy: buy dips along the local trend.

▶ Bottom Buying 2:26 ▶ Bottom Buying 3:19 ▶ Bottom Buying 3:54 both

Dip, pullback or downtrend?

Label the drop by which trend it lost. A dip wicks into the local trend (1H 200s, ~1–3%) and the trend resumes. If the local trend breaks, you are "now buying a pullback" into the HTF trend (4H 200s). If the HTF trend is lost and the daily makes a lower low, it is a downtrend. "It's all semantics", but clear names let you digest it to your gut.

▶ Bottom Buying 4:43 ▶ Bottom Buying 5:13 ▶ Bottom Buying 5:54 ▶ Bottom Buying 20:46 both

A snowman needs a snowball first

"If you wanted to create a snowman you'd have to build a snowball first." Price can't test the 4H 200s without first losing the local trend. The recovery runs the same chain in reverse: reclaim 1H 200s → reclaim 4H 200s → daily higher high.

flowchart LR
  A[Lose 1H 200s] --> B[Test 4H 200s] --> C[Lose 4H 200s
+ daily LL] --> D[Test 200D]
  D -.recovery, reversed.-> E[Reclaim 1H 200s] --> F[Reclaim 4H 200s] --> G[Daily HH]
    

▶ Bottom Buying 6:34 ▶ Bottom Buying 22:32 both

Act only at inflection points

An inflection point is where assumptions scale either way: hold → more bullish, lose → significantly bearish. A plain support is not one. "I'm a trend trader, not a support level trader." Price reached this support by breaking several others. Is this one more significant? "My honest answer is I don't [know]."

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Downtrends don't behave like dips

Buy a downtrend expecting dip behavior and you get different results: expand your thinking for bigger drops. "Thank you for stepping in front of the trend, because somebody has to do it." LH/LL is a downtrend even when "anyone and their grandmother" calls it sideways. Stay a trend trader until it chops up enough to justify a range mindset.

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Bottom buying is mostly fruitless

Many bought BTC's ~15k capitulation. Few held through two months of 10% chop. Probing against the trend (Soros) pays only with 10+ years of experience. In a downtrend he is "just chilling on the sideline": the same method that adapts will catch the next trend, so there is no urgency to catch a 25% bounce.

▶ Bottom Buying 14:57 ▶ Bottom Buying 15:41 ▶ Bottom Buying 16:24 ▶ Bottom Buying 16:41 investor

If you must: very-HTF inflection, small, laddered

To justify buying a downtrend, zoom far out: BTC's 200D + the 52k demand zone while the HTF is still up ("still in a bull market"). But it sat ~25% below the 4H 200s loss, and alts already down 50% could get destroyed. "At least acknowledge that you are catching a knife." If you step in front of the train, skew execution: small size, laddered bids.

▶ Bottom Buying 12:47 ▶ Bottom Buying 13:45 ▶ Bottom Buying 14:12 ▶ Bottom Buying 17:29 ▶ Bottom Buying 18:35 ▶ Bottom Buying 18:50 investor

DCA belongs at support

Support is fine for knife-catching and for DCA. If you are DCA-ing BTC over 5 years, "it probably makes sense to do that at a support level." That is investor Mercury. Trader Mercury's main account ignores support bounces, because they are not where he makes the bulk of his money.

▶ Bottom Buying 9:48 ▶ Bottom Buying 10:18 investor