Never wrong: adapt; confidence plateau

Right or adjusting

"I always put myself in this position where I'm right or adjusting." Being wrong means you expected one outcome and got another. "You should never expect something in markets." Either the thesis keeps holding, or the market forces you to adjust. "That's it, there is no right or wrong." Adjusting is not a loss of face: "cool, adjust, adjust, it's that simple."

flowchart LR
  P[Position + written thesis] --> Q{Thesis still justified?}
  Q -->|yes| R[Right: hold, TP at levels]
  Q -->|no| A[Adjust: exit, re-plan, flip bias]
  A --> P
    

▶ Never Wrong 0:01 ▶ Never Wrong 0:17 ▶ Never Wrong 0:29 ▶ Never Wrong 10:45 ▶ Never Wrong 11:06 ▶ Domino 6:00 ▶ Domino 6:17 ▶ Domino 6:25 both

Succeed under any outcome

Position so that extreme up, extreme down, or "sideways for the rest of forever" are all fine. Think in options, not reward: "what options do I have available to me if X, Y and Z occur?" Never put yourself where "you absolutely need something to happen". Positioned early, every later path is a luxury: "from here, up or down, I win."

▶ Never Wrong 1:05 ▶ Never Wrong 1:14 ▶ Therapy 16:30 ▶ Therapy 16:53 ▶ Therapy 17:18 ▶ Therapy 17:48 ▶ Domino 9:32 ▶ Domino 9:49 ▶ Domino 9:59 both

Chess, not war

"By buying Bitcoin here I'm moving my pawn upwards." Either the pawn advances or it gets sacrificed at the stop, "and I'm still in the game." "It's chess to me, it's not war." Think several steps ahead, with a backup plan to the backup plan. "More times than not, your opponent tends to be yourself."

▶ Never Wrong 6:34 ▶ Never Wrong 7:10 ▶ Never Wrong 7:21 ▶ Winners vs Losers 17:45 ▶ Winners vs Losers 17:56 ▶ Winners vs Losers 18:23 both

Justification = invalidation

"All you really have to remember is justification and then invalidation, because those two things tend to be the exact same thing." His justification is the 4H 200s + daily structure (HH/HL). Hold the trend assumption until you can no longer justify it; it "takes you four seconds" to see the slant flip. "If you can justify something, that means you can also invalidate that something." See Ch 9 for stops.

▶ Therapy 2:48 ▶ Therapy 2:57 ▶ Therapy 3:06 ▶ Winners vs Losers 2:02 ▶ Winners vs Losers 5:14 ▶ Winners vs Losers 6:03 ▶ Domino 10:52 ▶ Domino 11:09 both

Confidence plateaus; it doesn't mirror price

Confidence should step up only on significant events: 1H 200s reclaim, range breakout, 4H 200s reclaim, key level + 200D reclaim. Then it plateaus. "As bullish at 73k as at 45k." If price rises but no level, trend or structure changed, "what changed? Price… the Y axis itself." Confidence that mirrors price grows your size into the top, and the crash takes it back "with twice the speed". That is the life cycle of a turkey: "the trend breaks once. It held the past 13 times." Keeping it: Ch 10.

▶ Therapy 7:22 ▶ Therapy 7:42 ▶ Therapy 8:10 ▶ Therapy 8:51 ▶ Therapy 9:09 ▶ Therapy 9:41 ▶ Therapy 10:25 ▶ Bear Market? 1:16 ▶ Bear Market? 2:27 ▶ Bear Market? 3:00 ▶ Keep Profit 1:49 ▶ Keep Profit 2:30 ▶ Keep Profit 2:44 ▶ Keep Profit 3:42 both

Take breakouts at face value

The loser is bearish at range lows, bullish at range highs, and "sits complacently on their hands" at the breakout, hoping for a deviation: "coping during double-digit percentage moves". The winner expects the breakout to expand, and if it falls back in, adjusts as it happens. Being wrong on a breakout costs "an opportunity cost of about negative six percent". Missing the expansion costs the move.

▶ Winners vs Losers 6:46 ▶ Winners vs Losers 8:55 ▶ Winners vs Losers 10:35 ▶ Winners vs Losers 12:55 ▶ Winners vs Losers 13:20 ▶ Winner's Mentality 0:44 ▶ Winner's Mentality 1:42 ▶ Winner's Mentality 1:52 ▶ Winner's Mentality 2:22 ▶ Winner's Mentality 4:32 swing

Good bets go unrewarded; bad bets get rewarded

Hitting on hard 16 against a dealer's face card is the right bet. Stand, win by luck, and you'll keep making the wrong one: "yet it's the wrong bet to make." After a lucky breakdown call you "self-validate why you're a genius… you totally didn't just get lucky." His own lucky 2018 tops built conviction: "I was simply relying on variance." Top-callers who were "bearish on the way up" are only now reaching breakeven.

flowchart LR
  B[Bad bet: stand on 16] --> W[Wins by luck] --> G["'I'm a genius'"] --> B
  H[Good bet: hit on 16] --> L[Sometimes loses] --> K[Keep making it: EV wins over time] --> H
    

▶ Winners vs Losers 7:50 ▶ Winners vs Losers 9:56 ▶ Winner's Mentality 4:05 ▶ Winner's Mentality 4:12 ▶ This Mistake 4:59 ▶ This Mistake 6:15 both

Don't reward the dog that barks at the wind

"Printer cannot keep going brr… top is in, top is in… finally they're right." A guard dog that barks at every gust wants a treat when the robber finally comes. The same trend mindset that had you bullish at the bounce had you bullish from the start: "what's the difference if you sell the exact top or you sell right here?"

▶ Winners vs Losers 2:43 ▶ Winners vs Losers 3:47 ▶ Winners vs Losers 4:23 ▶ Winners vs Losers 4:49 both

Prepare for the day you didn't expect

A −30% daily candle comes about once a year, so "you cannot afford to be that person who is balls to the wall" long. Like pandemics, rare-seeming events happen far more often than you think. Be prepared, not in ruin. That is what "never wrong" rests on: sized so any outcome is survivable.

▶ Never Wrong 8:08 ▶ Never Wrong 8:45 ▶ Never Wrong 9:05 ▶ Never Wrong 10:03 both

Luck is a byproduct of positioning

"Luck is a byproduct of putting yourself in a position where opportunity may find you." A sound first decision raises the quality of the 50 options available later: a domino of options. "The position that you're in now is a direct reflection of the position that you put yourself in." The goal is not to maximize gains but "to ensure wins over a long course of time consistently."

flowchart LR
  E[Early entry at a trend reclaim] --> A[Up: TP at resistance, hold core]
  E --> B[Sweep / LTF break: ignore, stop is far]
  E --> C[Trend breaks: exit in profit]
  X[Late entry at the top] --> Y[Any dip = stop or panic]
    

▶ Superpower 23:27 ▶ Therapy 5:27 ▶ Therapy 12:40 ▶ Therapy 13:37 ▶ Therapy 27:41 ▶ Therapy 28:11 both